The end is near

Category Archives: Monthly commentary

The end is near

By Patsy Langa | 5th April 2019

As another rating review loomed, many market participants thought South Africa was moving closer to the end of its investment grade status. Yet Moody’s decided not to review the sovereign now, enabling a rally in the rand and bonds despite…
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Few silver linings

By Patsy Langa | 12th March 2019

From hero to (almost) zero is probably a good way to describe sentiment towards South African assets in February. While a less hawkish Fed and lower US yields should have boded well for capital inflows, SA-specific factors prevented offshore investors…
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From the Powell Put to Eskom’s agony

By Patsy Langa | 18th February 2019

The New Year got off to a racing start, thanks in large part to the Powell Put as the Federal Reserve significantly softened its language. The market’s interpretation of the January FOMC statement and press briefing was unambiguously dovish, as…
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Uncertainty reigns

By Patsy Langa | 18th January 2019

The holidays turned out to be not-so-happy for financial markets, but there is disagreement on who the Grinch was. Many would argue that the Fed was to blame as rate hikes and the automatic reduction in the balance sheet drained…
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What a difference a word makes

By Patsy Langa | 11th December 2018

At the start of November we were in the midst of a trade “war”, but by the end of the month we had a trade “truce”. At the November FOMC, everyone believed the Fed was “well” below neutral, only to…
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The hunt after red October

By Patsy Langa | 7th November 2018

The month that was would surely be better placed in the cinema, with trade tensions, cold wars, electioneering, politically motivated murder, sanctions, currency manipulation, the new NAFTA that has a hard to pronounce acronym of USMCA, Fed fears, Brazil’s pending…
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Manager Commentary: September 2018

By Patsy Langa | 12th October 2018

Market stress eased over the course of September as the dollar retreated and risk aversion subsided. Yet this attempt for EM assets to stabilise belies persistent underlying risks relating largely to the impact on growth and inflation from the ongoing…
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Manager Commentary: August 2018

By Patsy Langa | 31st August 2018

The stabilisation in global markets proved to be short-lived as EMs were caught in the cross-currents of contagion, trade wars, and renewed dollar strength. Tightening global liquidity continues to permeate markets and the escalation in trade tensions have started to…
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Manager Commentary: June 2018

By Patsy Langa | 30th June 2018

Q2 provided a reality check, not only on the global economy, but also on the outlook for South Africa. The shock 2.2% contraction in GDP and 4.8%/GDP current account deficit in 1Q18 emphasise that SA needs more than Ramaphoria to…
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Manager Commentary: May 2018

By Patsy Langa | 31st May 2018

The market malaise intensified in May amid the confluence of a spike in US yields, higher oil price, weak activity data, geopolitics, and EM crises. The US withdrew from the Iran deal and implemented steel and aluminium tariffs on Mexico,…
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Category Archives: Monthly commentary

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