Category Archives: Featured

Download PDF The US interest rate cycle and what it means for SA bonds The path of US rates is arguably the most important debate for SA bond investors, alongside SA’s ability to consolidate its fiscal position. Our analysis attempts…
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Download PDF Reasons why the SARB is likely to be conservative with rate cuts CPI inflation for July 2024 surprised to the downside, slowing from 5.1% y/y in June to 4.6% y/y in July versus expectations of 4.8% y/y. Importantly,…
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Download PDF May 2023 blowout in SA risk premia has reversed The 100bp of growth and political risk premium priced into SA bonds post May 2023, on the back of loadshedding and Lady R, has reversed. While assets are by…
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Download PDF SA bonds rally 5% post May’s election as EM peers experience negative returns SA’s Government of National Unity (GNU) now comprises 72% of the seats in parliament and excluding the DA it is one seat short of a…
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Download PDF Implications of SARB targeting 3% inflation Conjecture about the lowering of South Africa’s inflation target from its current 4.5% has gained momentum since the publication in February 2024 of National Treasury’s Macroeconomic Policy Review[1]. The review argues that…
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Download PDF SA interest rates move higher in 1Q24 on better-than-expected US data Over the first quarter of 2024, emerging market bonds have contended with a massive shift higher in global interest rates, causing the JP Morgan local bond index…
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Download PDF The expected turn in interest rate cycle Across the globe, markets are anticipating a turn in the interest rate cycle. This should be positive for financial markets, as we see in the US and EU where equity markets…
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Download PDF KEEPING AN EYE ON REGULATORY DEVELOPMENTS IN SOUTH AFRICA As 2024 dawns, we cannot help but feel that the world is considerably different to the way it was 10 years ago. Globally, economies must now contend with a…
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Download PDF Are SA bonds still attractive? Our SA bond-positive macro narrative since August 2023 has been that, although the country faces structural risks that are likely to lead to a downgrade to single B over the long run, the…
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Download PDF Peak rates benefit domestic assets, but will SA continue to underperform? Risk assets surged in the 2023 fourth quarter, as markets priced for a goldilocks scenario in the US in 2024, characterised by slower inflation and lower rates…
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