News and Insights

Download PDF Two steps forward, one step back Asset markets posted a respectable end to a challenging year, as most indices more than recouped the substantial March drawdowns. Yet this was largely thanks to extraordinary monetary and fiscal policy stimulus…
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Download PDF Discounting the V-bound Global developments trumped domestic dynamics during November, leaving SA asset markets stronger. SOSO (stimulus on/stimulus off) and VOVO (vaccine on/vaccine off) aligned for the perfect financial market backdrop. The US election was resolved quickly in…
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Download PDF Taking on the wage bill SOSO (stimulus on/stimulus off) exacerbated RORO (risk on/risk off) in October. Covid-19 and vaccine developments remain the underlying drivers of markets (as POTUS and FLOTUS both tested positive for Covid-19), but there was…
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Download PDF Hanging in the balance Market participants have broadened their focus beyond Covid and vaccine developments to include the absence of a second fiscal package in the US and escalating uncertainty around the US election. In addition, various countries…
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Download PDF SARB prudence amid fiscal fears Covid remains front and centre for global markets – whether it is the risk of renewed lockdowns or the opening of the world economy. While some Eurozone countries are experiencing a “second wave”…
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July was all about stimulus, as the approval of a EUR750bn Next Generation EU/Recovery Fund boosted sentiment, while negotiations to extend fiscal support in the US were ongoing. The ECB and the Fed committed to maintain accommodative policies for as…
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Link to a video discussion on: The supplementary budget This time is different. At least, that is what the Finance Minister would like us to believe. The FY21 Supplementary Budget (SB) has two objectives. The first and primary focus is…
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South African banks have a long history of impressive stability, successfully navigating EM crises, a domestic A2 banking crisis and the GFC without too much difficulty. The reasons for this are numerous, but would include the diversity of their income…
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Well that escalated quickly. From a short-lived growth slowdown mid-February, to a full-blown global recession, the impact of Covid-19 is forcing many forecasters to revise growth projections almost daily as lockdowns set in or are extended. This morning, the SARB…
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I have attended the budget lock-up for economists and analysts since it started in 2013. I always look around the lock-up room at the faces of the other analysts to gauge the first reaction to the budget and general sentiment.…
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