News and Insights

2020 vision

By Carmen Nel | 2nd August 2019

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) this week met market expectations by cutting the policy rate form 2.50% to 2.25%. Moreover, quantitative tightening (QT), which is the shrinking of the Fed’s balance sheet, ended on 1 August – two…
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Not clear-cut

By Carmen Nel | 8th July 2019

It has been an erratic three months for equity markets. The S&P was Goldilocks in April (+3.9%), but lost it all and then some in May (-6.8%) due to Trump’s tariff tweets. There was a strong rebound in June (+7.2%)…
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Tweets, Tariffs and Trade Wars

By Anthony de la Cour | 28th May 2019

Protectionism once again stole the limelight on May 5th when Trump’s tweet reignited slumbering trade war concerns. Until that point global markets had slipped mostly back into complacency, fuelled by a now dovish Fed and a stimulating China, and with…
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Goldilocks and the three bears

By Carmen Nel | 15th May 2019

By now, we are all suffering from election indigestion. Even so, it is worth highlighting some of the key take-aways from what was a relatively incident-free and apathetic event, given the sharp decline in voter turnout, from 73.5% to 66.0%.…
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US Recessions and Asset Prices: A Quick Take

By Carmen Nel | 6th May 2019

Fears of a US recession escalated during the fourth quarter of 2018 amid the slump in risk assets and tightening in financial conditions. Notwithstanding the Fed’s dovish pivot in response to these concerns and attendant easing in financial conditions, various…
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The end is near

By Carmen Nel | 5th April 2019

As another rating review loomed, many market participants thought South Africa was moving closer to the end of its investment grade status. Yet Moody’s decided not to review the sovereign now, enabling a rally in the rand and bonds despite…
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A Moody March to junk status?

By Carmen Nel | 20th March 2019

The perceived risk associated with an adverse credit rating action waxes and wanes with investor sentiment, the currency, the political rhetoric of the day, and now load shedding. Power rationing has intensified in March; hence, it is no surprise that…
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Few silver linings

By Carmen Nel | 12th March 2019

From hero to (almost) zero is probably a good way to describe sentiment towards South African assets in February. While a less hawkish Fed and lower US yields should have boded well for capital inflows, SA-specific factors prevented offshore investors…
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Equities no longer the only premium asset class

By Eben Karsten | 22nd February 2019

Why would investors take inflation plus 5% return on a 30-year bond, or inflation plus 10% on an equity portfolio, with the non-negligible risk of facing significant drawdowns over a 1-year horizon, if investors can accrue inflation plus 3% via…
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Tough-talking Tito tries to toe the fiscal line

By Carmen Nel | 20th February 2019

In arguably the most challenging macro and political backdrop since the dawn of democracy, Finance Minister Tito Mboweni had to deliver a credible budget that not only appeased the rating agencies, but gave credence to President Ramaphosa’s reform promises while…
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Manager Commentary: September 2018

By Carmen Nel | 12th October 2018

Market stress eased over the course of September as the dollar retreated and risk aversion subsided. Yet this attempt for EM assets to stabilise belies persistent underlying risks relating largely to the impact on growth and inflation from the ongoing…
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Manager Commentary: August 2018

By Carmen Nel | 31st August 2018

The stabilisation in global markets proved to be short-lived as EMs were caught in the cross-currents of contagion, trade wars, and renewed dollar strength. Tightening global liquidity continues to permeate markets and the escalation in trade tensions have started to…
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Manager Commentary: June 2018

By Carmen Nel | 30th June 2018

Q2 provided a reality check, not only on the global economy, but also on the outlook for South Africa. The shock 2.2% contraction in GDP and 4.8%/GDP current account deficit in 1Q18 emphasise that SA needs more than Ramaphoria to…
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Manager Commentary: May 2018

By Carmen Nel | 31st May 2018

The market malaise intensified in May amid the confluence of a spike in US yields, higher oil price, weak activity data, geopolitics, and EM crises. The US withdrew from the Iran deal and implemented steel and aluminium tariffs on Mexico,…
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Manager Commentary: April 2018

By Carmen Nel | 30th April 2018

Shifting dynamics made April an uneasy month for markets: from a de-synchronisation in global growth to a reversal in the US dollar and a slump in portfolio flows to EMs. Geopolitics remained front and centre, moving from strained US-Sino relations,…
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Manager Commentary: March 2018

By Carmen Nel | 31st March 2018

South Africa continued to enjoy the tailwinds of the leadership transition as Moody’s not only affirmed the sovereign credit rating at an investment grade credit rating of Baa3, but moved the outlook from negative to stable. This allowed the SARB…
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Manager Commentary: February 2018

By Carmen Nel | 28th February 2018

South Africa continues to bask in “Ramaphoria”, shaking off the spike in global market volatility and escalating international trade tensions. While the ALSI came under pressure from the global equity market sell-off, the currency and bonds posted gains on the…
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Lourens Pretorius interview by Black Onyx

By Lourens Pretorius | 4th December 2017

In this interview, Andrew Ludwig from BLACK ONYX asks Lourens Pretorius from Matrix Fund Managers How he got into alternative investments. Some detail on the firm, team and strategies. How is the fund different from other traditional and alternative products.…
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Bruce Mommsen interview by Black Onyx

By Bruce Mommsen | 29th November 2017

In this FULL interview, Andrew Ludwig from BLACK ONYX asks Bruce Mommsen from Matrix Fund Managers, who runs the Matrix NCIS Multi Strategy Retail Hedge Fund: How he got into alternative investments. Some detail on the firm, team and strategies.…
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