Author Archives: Kim Silberman

Download PDF The US interest rate cycle and what it means for SA bonds The path of US rates is arguably the most important debate for SA bond investors, alongside SA’s ability to consolidate its fiscal position. Our analysis attempts…
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Download PDF Reasons why the SARB is likely to be conservative with rate cuts CPI inflation for July 2024 surprised to the downside, slowing from 5.1% y/y in June to 4.6% y/y in July versus expectations of 4.8% y/y. Importantly,…
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Download PDF May 2023 blowout in SA risk premia has reversed The 100bp of growth and political risk premium priced into SA bonds post May 2023, on the back of loadshedding and Lady R, has reversed. While assets are by…
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Download PDF SA bonds rally 5% post May’s election as EM peers experience negative returns SA’s Government of National Unity (GNU) now comprises 72% of the seats in parliament and excluding the DA it is one seat short of a…
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Download PDF Implications of SARB targeting 3% inflation Conjecture about the lowering of South Africa’s inflation target from its current 4.5% has gained momentum since the publication in February 2024 of National Treasury’s Macroeconomic Policy Review[1]. The review argues that…
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Download PDF SA interest rates move higher in 1Q24 on better-than-expected US data Over the first quarter of 2024, emerging market bonds have contended with a massive shift higher in global interest rates, causing the JP Morgan local bond index…
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Download PDF Are SA bonds still attractive? Our SA bond-positive macro narrative since August 2023 has been that, although the country faces structural risks that are likely to lead to a downgrade to single B over the long run, the…
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Download PDF Peak rates benefit domestic assets, but will SA continue to underperform? Risk assets surged in the 2023 fourth quarter, as markets priced for a goldilocks scenario in the US in 2024, characterised by slower inflation and lower rates…
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Download PDF Pots of gold Last month we wrote that over the next five to 10 years, as South Africa’s fiscal burden becomes increasingly unmanageable, we expect that new, more creative sources of revenue and funding will be sourced. SA’s…
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Download PDF SA bonds offer value, while global rates shift lower The global monetary policy cycle is bullish for bonds, as evidenced by central banks keeping policy rates on hold in October. The US Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) kept the…
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