Author Archives: Kim Silberman

Download PDF 2025 Outlook: Global rates and local optimism – neither are certain The formation of the government of national unity (GNU) in May 2024 saw South African assets outperform emerging market peers last year and current valuations are pinned…
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Download PDF SARB keeps monetary policy in restrictive territory At the November meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) cut the repo rate by 25 basis points (bp) to 7.75% and did not discuss a 50bp cut. The Governor’s speech described inflation…
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Download PDF How many rate cuts can we expect from the SARB? In September’s monthly note we used an interest rate gap framework to estimate the cyclical trough in the US real policy rate. This month we apply the gap…
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Download PDF The US interest rate cycle and what it means for SA bonds The path of US rates is arguably the most important debate for SA bond investors, alongside SA’s ability to consolidate its fiscal position. Our analysis attempts…
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Download PDF Reasons why the SARB is likely to be conservative with rate cuts CPI inflation for July 2024 surprised to the downside, slowing from 5.1% y/y in June to 4.6% y/y in July versus expectations of 4.8% y/y. Importantly,…
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Download PDF May 2023 blowout in SA risk premia has reversed The 100bp of growth and political risk premium priced into SA bonds post May 2023, on the back of loadshedding and Lady R, has reversed. While assets are by…
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Download PDF SA bonds rally 5% post May’s election as EM peers experience negative returns SA’s Government of National Unity (GNU) now comprises 72% of the seats in parliament and excluding the DA it is one seat short of a…
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Download PDF Implications of SARB targeting 3% inflation Conjecture about the lowering of South Africa’s inflation target from its current 4.5% has gained momentum since the publication in February 2024 of National Treasury’s Macroeconomic Policy Review[1]. The review argues that…
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Download PDF SA interest rates move higher in 1Q24 on better-than-expected US data Over the first quarter of 2024, emerging market bonds have contended with a massive shift higher in global interest rates, causing the JP Morgan local bond index…
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Download PDF Are SA bonds still attractive? Our SA bond-positive macro narrative since August 2023 has been that, although the country faces structural risks that are likely to lead to a downgrade to single B over the long run, the…
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