Author Archives: Kim Silberman

The US interest rate cycle and what it means for SA bonds The path of US rates is arguably the most important debate for SA bond investors, alongside SA’s ability to consolidate its fiscal position. Our analysis attempts to highlight…
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Reasons why the SARB is likely to be conservative with rate cuts CPI inflation for July 2024 surprised to the downside, slowing from 5.1% y/y in June to 4.6% y/y in July versus expectations of 4.8% y/y. Importantly, the downside…
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May 2023 blowout in SA risk premia has reversed The 100bp of growth and political risk premium priced into SA bonds post May 2023, on the back of loadshedding and Lady R, has reversed. While assets are by no means…
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SA bonds rally 5% post May’s election as EM peers experience negative returns SA’s Government of National Unity (GNU) now comprises 72% of the seats in parliament and excluding the DA it is one seat short of a majority. This…
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Implications of SARB targeting 3% inflation Conjecture about the lowering of South Africa’s inflation target from its current 4.5% has gained momentum since the publication in February 2024 of National Treasury’s Macroeconomic Policy Review[1]. The review argues that inflation targeting’s…
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SA interest rates move higher in 1Q24 on better-than-expected US data Over the first quarter of 2024, emerging market bonds have contended with a massive shift higher in global interest rates, causing the JP Morgan local bond index to lose…
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